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IronyTaken · 03-13-2009, 07:26 AM

Article is almost two years old but still holds true for it's predictions so far.

I am still amazed at how much we porgressed in computers since I got my 1988 mac about 20 years ago.

To think the computer will have better calculating capacity in less than a decade.

So what is everyone's thoughts?

http://blog.taragana.com/index.php/a...f-human-brain/

Quote:

Sun Microsystems announced today that its hardware will power the largest supercomputer ever built, with 62,976 CPU cores, 125 terabytes of memory, 1.7 petabytes of disk space, and 504 teraflops of performance.

Ranger will be hosted at the Texas Advanced Computing Center at the University of Texas, Austin. It is due to go online on January 1, 2008. Ranger costs $30 million in hardware alone, and an additional $29 million for staffing and maintenance. It is funded by a grant from the National Science Foundation. link

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Update:

The first supercomputer capable of crunching through a thousand trillion mathematical operations every second has been announced by IBM. This is roughly equivalent to the combined processing power of a 2.4-kilometre-high pile of laptop computers.

Blue Gene/P will be capable of a peak performance of 3000 trillion calculations, or floating point operations, per second (3 petaflops). But its sustained performance is expected to level out at around 1 petaflop.

The IBM machine’s capacity shifts the date earlier for a single, huge and very expensive, machine able to fully simulate the human brain to ~2012……software notwithstanding, of course.

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Human Brain capacity
A human brain capacity is approximately 10,000 TeraFlops = 10 Petaflop = number of neurons X average number of connections between neurons X neuron firing capacity per second). Ranger will be 1/20 of that capacity.

How much is 1 petabyte exactly?
To give you an overview of the numbers involved:
1000 - kilo
1000000 - mega
1000000000 - giga
1000000000000 - tera
1000000000000000 - peta

Validity of Moore's Law in 10 years
It is apparent that Moore’s law will hold good for at least another 10 years thanks to two promising technology and materials hafnium and graphene.

Speaking of a reinvigorated Moore's Law, Intel's regional vice president for sales and marketing, John Antone said in Bangkok that Intel's latest 45-nanometer transistor had a gate that used a new element called hafnium that significantly improved the electrical characteristics by cutting down leakage current.

"So in these 45 nanometer transistors we actually deposited hafnium…It's more like a metal, so the switching capabilities are significantly better than the capacitance associated with silicon dioxide."

Antone said that Gordon Moore himself had called this "the biggest breakthrough in processor technology in 40 years".

"We've demonstrated the 45 nanometer, which will begin production in the second half of this year, we've talked about and shown pictures of 35 nanometers. I believe the we've put a road map out for 10 years that goes down below 10 nanometers," he said. link

There is another very exciting nano-technology material, graphene, which is strictly two dimensional crystals something like unrolled carbon nanotubes. Graphene can act as good transistors at 10 nanometers where silica currently has problems below 15 nanometers. link

When can computers equal human brain?
So, with doubling of processor capacity every 18 months in 7 or 8 years, by around 2015, individual supercomputers will have the calculating capacity of a human brain.

5 years later or so – 2020 - we will be spending $1,000 on a second brain, so we’ll have two heads, which are supposed to be better than one

Pleo for now
For right now, we’ll just have to settle for the $350 Pleo from the inventor of the Furby.

Original Author: Joel B

Z0MBiE · 03-13-2009, 07:35 AM

and what will we do with it?

that's right, play diablo.

IronyTaken · 03-13-2009, 07:36 AM

umm seems there is an article from about a month ago that says there is a plan to build a 20 petaflop computer by 2012, more than 10 times the power of the fastest ones today.

http://www.gcn.com/Articles/2009/02/...rcomputer.aspx

Quote:

Joab JacksonFeb 03, 2009
The Energy Department's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has chosen IBM to build a supercomputer that will be almost 20 times more powerful than today's fastest supercomputer.

To be housed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the computer, nicknamed Sequoia, will run 1.6 million IBM Power processors, and is expected to a be able to execute 20 quadrillion floating-point operations per second (20 petaflops). The machine is expected to be fully operational by 2012.

IBM will also provide NNSA with a starter supercomputer to test applications that will be used on Sequoia. Named Dawn, this computer will be operational in 2009 and be capable of executing 500 trillion floating point operations per second (500 teraflops).

Sequoia will occupy 3,422 square feet. Its 98,304 compute nodes will be housed in 96 refrigerator-sized racks, and the compute nodes will be connected with fiber optics. Sequoia will run the Linux operating system. IBM predicts Sequoia will also be an energy-efficient supercomputer able to offer 3,050 calculations per watt of energy.

“These powerful machines will provide NNSA with the capabilities needed to resolve time-urgent and complex scientific problems, ensuring the viability of the nation’s nuclear deterrent into the future. This endeavor will also help maintain U.S. leadership in high performance computing and promote scientific discovery,” NNSA Administrator Thomas D’Agostino, said in a statement.

NNSA use will use Sequoia to model the state of the nation’s nuclear weapons stockpile, to ensure that it is safely maintained. The Energy Department's Advanced Simulation and Computing program will also use the machine to run very large suites of complex simulations to model the weather and other complex phenomena.

At present, the world's most powerful computer is widely thought to be the Los Alamos National Laboratory's Roadrunner, another IBM system that topped the most recent Top 500 ranking of the world's most powerful computers. Roadrunner is a 129,000 processor machine with a sustain performance of more than 1.1 petaflops.

IBM will build and test the machine at its Rochester, Minn. plant.

About the Author

Joab Jackson is the senior technology editor for Government Computer News

Cingal · 03-13-2009, 07:40 AM

I bet Crysis will still lag on it.

IronyTaken · 03-13-2009, 07:42 AM

Maybe it wouldn't. These computers aren't built to play games just like if you bought an nvidia tesla card it wouldn;t play crysis worth shit.

It mainly deals with floating point operations.

Manic · 03-13-2009, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IronyTaken

Maybe it wouldn't. These computers aren't built to play games just like if you bought an nvidia tesla card it wouldn;t play crysis worth shit.

It mainly deals with things we don't care about.

That's my understanding, at least.

Oisterboy · 03-13-2009, 10:10 AM

I saw a teacher robot they made in one of the Asian countries. It yells at kids and takes attendance.

It will be FOREVER before that is perfected. Kids are like prisoners, the amount of things they can do that isn't allowed is pretty much endless.

Cereal&Milk · 03-13-2009, 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oisterboy

I saw a teacher robot they made in one of the Asian countries. It yells at kids and takes attendance.

It will be FOREVER before that is perfected. Kids are like prisoners, the amount of things they can do that isn't allowed is pretty much endless.

*Imagines sexing the teacherbot.*

Z0MBiE · 03-13-2009, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cereal&Milk

*Imagines sexing the teacherbot.*

that's a job for rapebot.

IronyTaken · 03-13-2009, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Z0MBiE

that's a job for rapebot.

And then there is the job of the robot judge and robot jury to decide, with massive floating point calculations, what time the rapebot will spend in robot jail where it will get raped by another rapebot.

03-13-2009, 07:40 AM	#4 (permalink)
Cingal The Devil's Advocate. Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Oh, you know, around. Posts: 11,699 Reputation: 301	I bet Crysis will still lag on it. __________________ On nights like tonight, When no one's around. I sit in the dark, with my hands on the ground. And I smile like the devil smiles. Unseen but proud.

03-13-2009, 10:10 AM	#7 (permalink)
Oisterboy \| (• ◡•)\| (❍ᴥ❍ʋ) Join Date: May 2006 Location: Just Past Jupiter Posts: 16,555 Reputation: 644	I saw a teacher robot they made in one of the Asian countries. It yells at kids and takes attendance. It will be FOREVER before that is perfected. Kids are like prisoners, the amount of things they can do that isn't allowed is pretty much endless. __________________

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03-13-2009, 07:35 AM	#2 (permalink)
Z0MBiE Banned Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 3,884 Reputation: 221	and what will we do with it? that's right, play diablo.

03-13-2009, 07:42 AM	#5 (permalink)
IronyTaken Banned Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 8,400 Reputation: 292	Maybe it wouldn't. These computers aren't built to play games just like if you bought an nvidia tesla card it wouldn;t play crysis worth shit. It mainly deals with floating point operations.