04-29-2009, 04:07 PM
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First death outside of Mexico caused by the swine flu
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SWINE flu claimed its first victim outside Mexico last night with the death of a 23-month-old child in the US.
However, the toddler who died in Texas was from Mexico and had travelled to the US for medical treatment, officials said.
While the death toll in Mexico yesterday appeared to be stabilising, three other countries confirmed cases of the deadly virus. South Africa also reported two suspected cases - the first in the African continent.
The acting head of the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, Richard Besser, said it was too soon to say whether the boy's death, the first swine flu fatality in the US, suggested the virus was spreading to more states. The number of confirmed swine flu cases in the US rose to 66, but the epidemic was also suspected of having spread to hundreds of students at a New York school who fell ill after a holiday trip to Mexico.
President Barack Obama said the outbreak had created a "serious situation" in the US requiring the "utmost precautions".
News of the US death came as Germany, with three cases, Costa Rica with two and Austria, with one, became the latest countries to confirm they had sufferers.
New Zealand's positive swine flu total rose to 14 and the number of confirmed cases in Britain climbed to five - one a 12-year-old schoolgirl.
New Zealand Health Minister Tony Ryall said World Health Organisation tests had confirmed three cases of swine flu among members of a school group who showed flu symptoms, but that was evidence enough to assume all were infected.
Senior New Zealand regional health official Julia Peters said the nation's tally had been lifted to 14 because two more students in the group and another traveller who recently returned from North America were also believed to be infected. In Mexico, the confirmed death toll from the virus appeared to stabilise at just seven, but health officials said they expected more to die.
The virus is suspected in 159 deaths and 2498 illnesses in Mexico, said Health Secretary Jose Cordova, who called the death toll "more or less stable".
Only 1311 suspected swine flu cases remained in hospital, in a sign that treatment worked for people who got medical care fast.
Cuba became the first country to impose an outright ban on travel to Mexico. Argentina soon followed with its own ban, and ordered 60,000 visitors who arrived from Canada, Mexico and the US in the past 20 days to contact the Health Ministry.
Experts on epidemics said these kinds of interventions were ineffective, since this flu - a blend of genetic material from pigs, birds and humans to which people have no natural immunity - appeared in too many places for containment efforts to make a difference.
"Border controls do not work. Travel restrictions do not work," said WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl. "Governments should do more to provide medical help to people with swine flu symptoms, since the virus is proving to be treatable if diagnosed early."
Mr Cordova said many people crowding hospital waiting rooms complaining of swine flu symptoms had other ailments.
He said of new cases: "In the last days there has been a drop."
Scientists hope to have a key ingredient for a vaccine ready early next month, but it will be months before any shots are available for safety testing. Using samples of flu taken from people who fell ill in Mexico and the US, scientists are engineering a strain that could trigger the immune system without causing illness.
Scientists have also begun exploring why nearly all the deaths and a huge proportion of the hospital admissions had been in Mexico. Researchers told The Washington Post possible reasons included: poor nutrition, the effect of other infections, better medical care outside Mexico or the virus weakening as it spreads.
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Swine flu worse than SARS
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If Asia's experience during the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in 2003 is any measure of things to come, the region's economies may find themselves in a much deeper hole should swine flu spread. Economists and industry leaders are closely watching the spread of the swine flu.
Quarantine officer monitors thermal scanner as passengers from international flight arrive at Incheon airport, S. Korea, 28 Apr 2009
Should a severe outbreak of the flu occur in Asia, economists and industry executives fear the economic damage would be worse than that of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in 2003.
The SARS Effect:
SARS killed almost 800 people, 299 of them in Hong Kong. Economic activity in the territory was brought to a virtual standstill as health care workers tried to halt the spread of the virus.
The chief economist of Economic Research Analysis in Hong KongConnie Bolland says she is more worried about the swine flu than SARS because of the way the virus appears to spread.
"The SARS, I did an analysis and the impact on Hong Kong is very little economically speaking because people don't travel so much and they spend more at home," Bolland said. "If this outbreak is genuine and not being contained, because it's human-to-human (infection), the impact can be potentially disastrous ... If that outbreak escalated to a very serious level, all economies will be affected. By then you will have travel ban, a lot of shopping, trading would be stopped, a lot of cross-border travel curtailed. It would be worse than the SARS."
In 2003, Hong Kong's economy suffered as tourists and business executives deferred travel to the territory and residents stayed away from restaurants and malls. But the outbreak was contained within a few months.
This week, transportation and tourism stocks in Asia dropped the most when news broke of swine's flu's spread outside North America.
Association of Asia-Pacific Airlines Director-General Andrew Herdman says the outbreak is occurring when the industry can least afford it. The association's 17 members combined carried nearly 11 percent fewer passengers in March from the same period last year.
"We are in a midst of an industry downturn, we had a very difficult year last and this year is proving to be even more challenging," Herdman said. "So if the outbreak were to turn to pandemic, in that scenario, clearly it would have a much more severe impact on travel and would be yet another thing we have to contend with."
Travel bans are unlikely:
Train riders in Mexico City wear masks after outbreak of swine flu, 24 Apr 2009
Officials at the World Health Organization have indicated travel bans are unlikely, because the virus has begun to spread all over the world. It was first identified in Mexico, where it is thought to have caused more than 150 deaths. But confirmed swine flu cases have been found in Europe, Israel, the United States, Canada and New Zealand.
Bolland says a quick response to such an outbreak in Asia is key to preventing a deep economic crisis.
"Closing down of schools and setting up of detection centers, treatment centers, imposing travel bans in countries where most number of outbreaks occur, advising organizations to reduce physical contact, work from home, work on shifts ...," Bolland said.
New Zealand has confirmed the first cases of swine flu in the Asia-Pacific region. Governments throughout Asia are stepping up disease surveillance and readying contingency plans.
On Wednesday, stock markets in Asia recovered from two days of flu-related selling. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 2.8 percent. South Korea's KOSPI gained nearly three percent and Shanghai's main index closed 2.8 percent higher.
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The invasion has begun.
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Last edited by MageMoa; 04-29-2009 at 04:11 PM.
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