Guide to Luck with drops and scrolls. - Trail Version

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    Default Guide to Luck with drops and scrolls. - Trail Version

    If the following information is acceptable to the community, then i will consider adding it to the guides section.
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    ================================================== ========
    DROPS AND YOU: A GUIDE TO UNDERSTANDING LADY LUCK
    ================================================== ========
    Version 2.4

    INFORMATION ABOUT THE AUTHOR
    Name: Ivan Montecinos
    Username: NotForHire
    In-Game-Name: NotForHire
    Email for contact: ivanmontecinos@yahoo.com

    TABLE OF CONTENTS
    (1) Introduction
    (2) Your odds for getting item drops
    (3) What you can and cant do to improve item drop odds
    (4) Your odds for scrolling items
    (5) Conclusion

    INTRODUCTION:

    So, you want to have that awesome special item eh?

    Feel that youīre going crazy taking into consideration everything, including the direction the windīs blowing, when killing monsters?

    Well, I am here to resolve some of your doubts and frustrations. The following guide will address how items get dropped and what you should and shouldnt worry about while hunting for them.

    CAUTION: With Luck there are TONS of variables that come into play. Most of these random occurences are things we cannot control. Understanding this will help you! All we can control are our own actions.

    Here we go then.
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    Topic #1: Odds in regards to item drops.
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    Question #1: How does the game decide when and where to drop an item?

    Answer: Programs are built using mathematics, algorithms, formulas and equations. When it comes to item drops calcuations are made for every monster you kill.

    "Could you put that in English please?"

    I am trying to say that your chances of getting ANY drop or a drop at all from a monster depend upon a random number! A roll of the dice. The game roles dice to see if you win. This is written by the programmers thru "If/Then" statements such as the following:

    IF X=500 THRU 2,456 WHEN Y=3425B THEN ACTION# 232

    ACTION#232: Drop a Leatty Furball.

    All of this takes Godly amounts of time to prepare, so lets hear it for Wizet!

    "Could you get back to the point."

    Ehem. Ok.

    Letīs say you kill one Bloctopus. A Bloctopus has a maximum of five drops.

    The following list of actions are run by MapleStory when you kill a monster:

    A) Dice are rolled to see if you get a drop at all.

    This Dice has 100 sides. If the dice lands on any number from 1-80 you get the first drop. If the dice lands on any number from 80-100 you dont get the first drop (which also means the monster doesnt drop anything at all, period).

    Lets say you get that 1st monster drop: Dice are rolled again now to see if you get a COMMON drop (monster piece), an UNCOMMON drop (armor) or a RARE drop (scroll).

    C) The dice that is rolled has 1,000 sides. If the dice land on 1-900 you get a common drop. If the dice land on 900-999 you get an uncommon drop. If you manage to get the dice to land on THE number 1,000 you get that RARE drop!

    D) Now that we know you are going to get an item (Lets say you rolled an Uncommon), dice are rolled to see WHAT item is dropped. (Depending on what items a Bloctopus drops) For example: Bloctopi have 9 uncommon items they can drop. Those nine items have different chances of dropping because some are more common than others. (It is easier to find a white potion than it is to find an opal ore and that ore is easier to find than a gold ore).

    E) The above item appears. This item that dropped for you is earmarked. It will not drop again for this kill.

    F) Dice are rolled to see if you get a second drop.

    G) Chances have decreased (say maybe 1-35 of 100) that you get this drop at all.

    H) If you get this 2nd drop, then dice are rolled again. These dice are 1000 sided. The roll determines whether you get a common, uncommon or rare drop.

    I) Letīs say you get another Uncommon drop. Dice decide What item among the uncommons will be dropped, excluding the item you got during the first drop.

    J) Dice are rolled again to see if you get a 3rd drop!

    K) Your chances to get a drop this time have signifcantly decreased (say 1 in 10 of 100).

    L) If you get the 3rd drop, the game again computes what type of item gets dropped then which item of the type.

    M) If you get a 3rd drop, dice are rolled for a 4th. If you dont, dice are no longer rolled for this kill.

    N) After a 4th drop, you might get a 5th if youre lucky. After that its over.

    Thats how it works. Since all of this is so second nature to a program it takes only miliseconds to process. And NO, programs dont take lunch breaks.

    "Are you SURE this is what happens?!?"

    Actually... no. Some games come with monster Pre-determination. This means that when the monster spawns all the above calculations have already been made! If you kill that monster then a destiny unfolds... the items that were decided by the roll of the dice upon the monsterīs appearance fall. This is opposed to all the calculations happening WHEN you kill the monster. However, I am leaning towards the idea that calculations are taken WHEN you make the kill rather than before.

    "Why?"

    Because!!! If monsters have pre-determination then some hackers get to look into their codes and see if they have certain items on them! That allows them to seek out and destroy exactly that monster to get exactly that item!!! It is much safer for Wizet and for all of us to have the calculations done at the very last moment.

    ------------
    Question #2: "What other factors come into play when items are dropped?"

    Okay. This is a mind job. Are you ready?

    EVERYTHING in the game.

    "What?!?"

    Yes. Everything in the game can affect your luck. Its true. Let me explain:

    Imagine a huge casino lounge full of people playing dice games. There are more than a million people in this lounge and all of them are getting dice rolls approximately every five seconds.

    This is EXACTLY the scenario we get for MapleStory online. There are more than a million people playing MapleGlobal and drops for each player occur approximately every five seconds or less.

    The fact that a person next to you rolls a RARE item DOES affect your chances of getting a RARE yourself! Probability dictates that a 1 in 1000 role does not happen back to back very often!

    Whats more, the fact that a person ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LOUNGE gets a RARE item DOES affect your chances of getting a RARE item yourself! Just because heīs virtually miles away does not matter. A rare role is a rare thing... when it happens that decreases everybody elses chances of going thru the same thing for a number of roles.

    "What do you mean a number of roles?"

    I mean that a million or more people are rolling dice like mad. Thats Billions of chances to get a 1 in 1000 roll. When a RARE roll does occur, the chances of it occuring again decrease slightly for a specific amount of time. This amount of time is determined by how many more roles occur before another RARE happens.

    "Huh?"

    Rare items dont drop back to back often. When someone gets a special item chances decrease, for a number of dice roles, for EVERYONE to get a rare of that kind. BUT because so many people are rolling, including you, as time passes those chances begin to rise again.

    "What do you mean for īa rare item of that kindī?"

    I mean that if a Steely drops off a Red Drake in Channel 12 on Khaini for someone other than you then the following occurs:

    -You have less of a chance to get a Steely from a Red Drake for a period of time.

    - You have less of a chance to get a Steely from another monster for a period of time.

    - You have less of a chance to get a RARE drop from a Red Drake for a while.

    Also:

    -The fact that youre on another server does not matter.

    -The fact that youre on another channel does not matter.

    -The fact that you were or were not on the same map with the person who got the Steely does not matter.

    -Whether you were or werent online does not matter.

    -Whether a small, middle-aged japanese woman in China sneezed just then does not matter.

    All the above affects you anyways.

    "For how long."

    Iīm afraid thatīs very difficult to compute. It is beyond my processing. However, I have heard that the C.I.A is now working on a mega supercomputer to calculate the odds. Please contact them at your leisure.

    "This is Madness!!!"

    Yes it is. Please try to stay sane. In life there are things you can and cannot control. I am informing you of both.

    People who react to or try to control factors that are out of there hands become frustrated, angry, negative and mean. These people are not mature.

    A strong, independent person does not let the little things in life get to him. He controls himself and his actions, takes into account what is happening and , overall, does not worry!!!

    ------------
    Question #3: "Do dice roles in other games affect my chances of getting a rare item?"

    No. Since other games have totally different odds and aspects they do not play a role in affecting outcomes in MapleStory.

    In other words MapleStory SEA has different roles and drops than MapleStory Global. What happens to players in SEA does not affect what happens to players in Global. Just as someone winning the Jackpot in Las Vegas does not affect your odds of getting hit by a Six Wheeler while driving on a highway.

    ------------
    Question #4: "So does having someone on the same map with me affect my chances to get a rare item?"

    Yes. Because it can affect how many kills you get. If that person is right next to you he can kill steal you. If the person is on the other side of the map, more monsters might spawn near you or on top of you.

    However, whether that person is on your team or not: your odds do NOT change. Just understand that the best way to beat probabilities is to roll dice as much as you can. THAT means kill as many monsters as quickly as possible! That will increase your chances of getting something cool.

    ------------
    Question #5: "So why do i get the impression that changing channels helps!?!"

    Changing channels does not DIRECTLY affect your luck unless it affects how many kills you can make.

    Otherwise, just like in a casino, standing up, going to the restroom, snorting or vomiting before rolling your dice does NOT directly affect your luck or the outcome of your roll.

    However it does indirectly affect your luck because of something called predisposition.

    "What are you talking about?"

    Predisposition: Your state of mind and body! The world is what you make of it, you see. The human mind cannot see reality clearly; it will always see the universe in a distorted, unique perspective. Who you are and what has happened to you in your life affects what the world means to you. Your past also affects what will happen to you in your future.

    Iīm trying to say that if changing channels gives you a breath of fresh air, making you feel better, then YES that will definitely help you get a better drop. Why? Because believe it or not, your mood affects your luck.

    In the casino, your mood affects your temper which affects your pulse and the state of your body (which can affect how you throw the dice). Online your mood affects how quickly you think time passes before you get a good drop. This is important because if you THINK you are not doing well then that will upset you. It will cast an effect on the way you see your world: making you FEEL that things arenīt going your way. Time will pass more slowly for you and things will not go well for you EVEN THO they arenīt.

    Reality itself is not actually distorted by your mood. However your personal reality is. This is why time passes faster for people who are having fun. Also, people who are less worried and more at ease tend to have better luck and do better at life in general.

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Topic #2: Improving your odds for item drops: What you can do!
    ---------------------------------------

    The following things do not improve your chances of getting a good drop:

    -Kill Stealing. Dont be rude. Get your own drops and kills.

    -Getting mad at someone for taking your kills. Forget it and move on.

    -Asking people to change channels. It makes no difference what channel youīre on! Change channels yourself!

    What you can do to improve your odds:

    -Train on monsters that drop what you need! Make sure they are monsters that do not cost you much in potions so you spend more time killing them than repoting.

    -Keep insisting. Take breaks from your training to do other things. Remember: the longer you go without getting a good drop the higher the probability that a good drop is coming your way. Especially if you continue to kill the same monster over and over.

    Remember: With Luck there are TONS of variables that come into play. Most of these random occurences are things we cannot control. Understanding this will help you! All we can control are our own actions.

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Topic #3: Odds in regards to scrolling items.
    ---------------------------------------

    Wow. Its not easy to get that 10% scroll to work, is it? Yes. Understanding scrolls is not that difficult:

    -A 100% scroll will always work
    -A 60% scroll will work 6 times out of 10.
    -A 10% scroll will work only 1 time out of 10.

    This means that if you try to use only 10% scrolls to improve items, theortically 1 out of every ten you use will work.

    As usual, many of the factors that affect item drops also affect scroll results. For example:

    -Changing channels does not help with scroll results.
    -That fact that someone else gets his 10% to work does slightly affect your odds.

    HOWEVER!

    Thereīs good news for me to give you: You can slightly improve your odds of getting a scroll to work by keeping track of how many scrolls have failed you in the past.

    How this works:

    The more often a 10% scroll fails for you, the greater the chance that your next 10% scroll will work. So if youve had a string of bad luck, it will eventually end.

    IN CONCLUSION:

    Its a tough game but someoneīs got to play it. Luck involves alot of things that you and I cant control, but if you know whats going on and are willing to do your part, without worrying, then luck will come your way.


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    Nice Guide!
    this should definetly be in Guides section ^^
    The name's Bun-BunHunter

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    holy mother of cow nice thing there.
    surprising i read the whole thing lol
    i like it!!
    but the scrolling part scares me cause i mostly get my scrolls working.....
    does this mean the next scrolls i use might have a great chance to fail?

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    A bit hard to understand... STICKY!
    I AM BACK!!!!

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    This is an awesome guide! I can't believe I read the whole thing. Also the scroll thing seems to work.

    Like this one time my friend used a scroll and it failed.( I saw the black poof)

    Then I used mine and it worked. (succesful sound and poof) I wonder did her fail translate into my success?




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    Wow....so i was pertty lucky to get 2 equips from 2 different monster at the same time.

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    good effort. but next time, start this thread in the guide section instead.

    this should be moved soon.
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    inspired by xChrome, i made my first ever sig with paint too. click for my magician/cleric guide

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    i don't fancy grinding for level, i just wanna sit around and have some fun.

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    O__O

    Jeez

    *bangs head* amazing. and yet so confusing took me a whole 10 minutes to read that lmao.

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