Can't have a game with an upgrade system without having upgrading rumors right? Well here's the dileo with Lunia's upgrading. I knew a few rumors and have created some of my own, so here they are:
Assume these success ratings for all theories:
+1 - 100%
+2 - 90%
+3 - 80%
+4 - 70%
+5 - 60%
+6 - 50%
+7 - 40%
+8 - 30%
+9 - 20%
+10? - 10%? (Never seen a +10 item, but if it exists, assume 10% chance success).
Theory 1 - 1 catalyst = 1% more success. So in order to gaurantee +2 will work, add 10, for +3, add 20, for +4, add 30..etc etc. I'm not sure how accurate this one is, but it seems that whenever people use 20 catalysts for all upgrades, it grants them pretty good ratings.
Theory 2 - catalysts give random % increase. Whether it be 0% or 100% more, catalysts will give you random success increases, and maybe even success DECREASES. That means 1 catalyst can have the same effect as 20.
Theory 3 - the "holy" catalyst number. For each upgrade, there is a proper number of catalysts that ensure maximum success, a number that is guaranteed to fail, but not change the stats, a number that will guarantee failure and go down 1, and a number that will guarantee failure and destroying the item. And it doesn't have to be a specific number either. Let me give you an example.
I've seen some people use 20 - 30 catalysts on something as small as +5 to +6, and it fails AND breaks. I use 6 catalysts from +5 to +6 and it succeeds the first time around. Another item i use 3 catalysts from +5 to +6 and it fails and goes down 1. I get back to +5 and use 4 catalysts, fail, and stay at the same number. Then i get greedy, use 10 catalysts, and it drops down to +4 again. I get back to +5 royally pissed, and use 15 catalysts. It fails, breaks, and i'm just like "to hell with it!" (This is a real example btw).
This is my theory, for it has given me the most consistant results. Here's another example with LIGHT FORTIFICATION.
I use 10 catalysts on one item, succeeds.
I use 5 catalysts on another item, also succeeds.
I use 14 catalysts on a third item, FAILS.
I see someone in the market area talking about how 20+ catalysts on a light fortification failed 3 times in a row.
Thus, holy number is 5-10? Maybe, maybe not.
Theory 4 - The lucky catalyst. It is possible to place anywhere between 1 and 50 catalysts in the catalyst slot at a time. This theory states that you only need 1 good catalyst in there, and the rest are junk catalysts. Placing in more catalysts give you a better chance of placing in the lucky catalyst that gets you the guaranteed +, which is why higher amounts of catalysts used give higher chances of success.
So that's all the theories I've come across. Post your own theories and comments please